1) The orange vertical lines are 1 year before the bitcoin halving. The next 1 year before the halving is May 2019. The bitcoin market usually starts a bull market 1 year before the halving.
2) The blue vertical lines are the bitcoin halving dates. The next halving date is May 2020. The previous halving dates were Nov 2012 and July 2016.
3) The green vertical lines are a time projection of when we should return to all time new highs based on the last bitcoin halving cycle.
4) The red vertical line prior to 2019 represent all time highs for a given halving cycle.
5) The red vertical line after 2019 is a price projection of the next new high based on the 2020 halving cycle. The high of the 2020 cycle should come on August of 2021.
6) The red horizontal line is a price prediction of the next new high of the 2020 halving cycle. The bitcoin price high prediction on Aug 2021 is $309,269
7) The white trend lines trace the projected price movement produced by the halving cycle.
9) The purple box lines trace the bitcoin bear market cycle from the high to the low and back to the old high.
10) The purple curved lines represent conservative price trajectories during the bull runs.
11) The yellow horizontal lines provide the estimates of the times between important halving cycle events. Bars represents months and D represents days.
Special Update Notes From Previous Analyses
*) I switched the blue and green vertical lines from earlier halving analyses.
**) The November 2013 vertical lines looks orange because the the yellow vertical line and red vertical line came at the same time: one year after the halving was the price high of that halving cycle.
1) The bitcoin halving cycle doubles the cost of production: the same energy and computational power produces only half the number of bitcoins . Read “A Cost of Production Model for Bitcoin” by Adam Hayes for a primer on the importance of the halving cycle for understanding the value of bitcoin .(Ref 1)
2) The bitcoin price drop in the first bitcoin cycle was 86%. If we have a similar decline this halving cycle, then bitcoin can drop to $2606.62 before May 2019 and the next 2020 halving cycle.
3) I believe that the bull run starts one year before the halving because miners stop deploying new computational capital/power in anticipation of the doubling of future production costs.
4) Bitcoin price accelerates up into the halving, and one year after, as market participants engage in price discovery under a new cost of production regime. The market over shoots and we crash in the 3rd year of the cycle. Specifically, we run in 2011,2012, 2013 and crash in 2014. Similarly, we run in 2015, 2016, 2017, and crash in 2018. Therefore, I propose that we run in 2019, 2020, 2021, and crash in 2022. This analysis may also partially explain the crash of 2010.
5) Finally, these halving dates reflect perfect symbolic singularities. Symbolic singularities are discursive/argumentation phenomena where market participants have foreknowledge of market moving events e.g., presidential elections, Olympic events, earnings reports, etc.. Certain classes of symbolic singularities have a bullish bias, such as when limited cognitive/market attention is distributed over under attended assets e.g.,
a) the HGP or Human Genome Project’s (Ref 2) claim that it would map the human genome before 2000 led to the genomic/biotech bubble of the late 1990s.
b) the Chinese Olympics of 2008 as a showcase of China’s arrival on the global economic stage and the ensuing 2006/2007 Chinese bubble.
Source Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/eF9hP11M-Bitcoin-Halving-Reward-and-Price-History-Analysis-Part-III/
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